**POLSCI 4SS3**

Winter 2024

I received accommodation letters. Schedule a meeting if you need anything beyond extra time for completing assignments

Labs now due at 11:59 PM instead of 5 PM (haven’t updated syllabus yet)

Submit lab 1! It’s easy and I won’t penalize you if you are late this time

Overview of course topic, goals, evaluation, expectations

We installed R and RStudio and explored them a bit

Cloud option always available if all else fails

More details in the course website

Talk about what research design means in the context of this course

Overview of the MIDA research design workflow

**Takeaway:**Research design as a set of steps that can be*encoded*and*interrogated***Lab:**Intro to R

**RD:**A procedure for generating answers to questions**More generally:**Thinking about how research is*(was, will be)*conducted**Emphasis:**We can**program**and**interrogate**elements of a research design

**Model***(M)***Inquiry***(I)***Data strategy***(D)***Answer strategy***(A)*

**:**A**set**of**speculations**about**what causes what**and**how****Set:**We consider many models because we are uncertain of how the world works**Speculation:**All models are wrong, some models are useful**What causes what:**Informs the*event generating process*(e.g. variables, distributions, correlations)**How:**An explanation of why things are connected or correlated

**Hint:** Models are also called theories (of change), arguments, claims, beliefs, epistemologies, ideologies, hunches, conjectures

**:**A research question stated in terms of the modelIn this course, we will talk about

**quantities of interest**or**estimands****Estimands**,**estimators**, and**estimates**are different things with annoyingly similar names!Some questions will lend themselves to multiple inquiries. We will tend to focus on those with one or a handful

What is the proportion of unemployed people in the country?

What is the effect of immigration on economic development?

Do people support funding private clinics to mitigate surgery backlogs?

Will the stock market crash this year?

Individual causal effect \(\tau_i = Y_{i}(1)-Y_{i}(0)\)

Letters like \(\mu\) denote

**estimands**A hat \(\hat{\mu}\) denotes

**estimators**

Letters like \(X\) denote

**actual variables**in our dataA bar \(\bar{X}\) denotes an

**estimate**calculated from our data

\(X \rightarrow \bar{X} \rightarrow \hat{\mu} \xrightarrow{\text{hopefully!}} \mu\)

\(\text{Data} \rightarrow \text{Estimate} \rightarrow \text{Estimator} \xrightarrow{\text{hopefully!}} \text{Estimand}\)

**:**Set of**procedures**used to**gather information**from the worldThree features:

How

*units*are selectedHow

*conditions*are assignedHow

*outcomes*are measured

**Sampling:**Random, stratified, snowball**Assignment:**Two-arm, multi-arm, factorial**Measurement:**Number of measures, time periods, data-adaptive

**:**How we summarize the data produced by the data strategyData

*is***too complicated**to speak for itselfNeeds summary and explanation

Most

**research methods**qualify as**answer strategies**

**Point estimation:**Single value answer**Hypothesis test:**Yes/no answer based on (statistical) procedure**Bayesian:**How likely different answers are given prior beliefs and data**Interval estimation:**Identify a range of plausible answers

**Point estimation:**Single value answer**Hypothesis test:**Yes/no answer based on (statistical) procedure**Bayesian:**How likely different answers are given prior beliefs and data**Interval estimation:**Identify a range of plausible answers

- They all include procedures to quantify
**uncertainty**

MIDA research designs have an **theoretical** and an **empirical** part:

Theory | Empirics |
---|---|

Model | Data strategy |

Inquiry | Answer strategy |

**Focus on:** What makes a *good* survey?

Last week, we created a project folder/directory for the class

Save all lab

`.qmd`

files in the same directorywill automatically recognize all files within the project directory

Continue using the same project for all lab assignments